India's Diplomatic Choice and Strategic Autonomy amid the New Cold War

Choi Yoon Jung

(yjchoi@sejong.org)

Director of the Department of Diplomatic Strategy Studies,

the Sejong Institute

Executive Summary

■ Why India's diplomatic strategy?

○ In 2022, the 75th anniversary of India's independence, India is approaching its dream of becoming "Strong India," emerging as a diplomatic giant comparable to great powers.

    ※ India is the fifth-largest economic power and a nuclear power with world's third-largest defense budget.

○ India is not only a key member of the West-led major consultative bodies, such as the Quad, G20, D10, and IPEF but also a continued cooperator with China and Russia.

○ As bloc politics has become visible due to the intensifying U.S.-China competition and the recent war in Ukraine, it is necessary to understand India's diplomatic choice and role, which is participating part in both sides.

■ Deepening shadow of bloc politics and India's Indo-Pacific Strategy 

○ As the hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, India, as a geopolitical middle ground state, has adopted various foreign and trade policies to overcome the difficulties but enjoy strategic autonomy by utilizing its geopolitical values instead. 

○ While the U.S. enjoyed its exclusively dominant position with its Indo-Pacific strategy within the region, India had made efforts to develop its unique Indo-Pacific strategy and maintain its strategic autonomy. 

    ※ 'Act East Policy' (2014) ⇒ 'Security and Growth for All in the Region' (SAGAR, 2015) ⇒ 'Free, Open, Inclusive Indo-Pacific' (2018) ⇒ 'Indo-Pacific Oceans' Initiative' (2019)

■ Clear strategic autonomy since the Ukraine crisis

○ After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in particular, India has further emphasized its strategic autonomy after considering its long-standing ties with Russia, deep-rooted distrust of the U.S., and strategic judgments based on India's current interests.

    ※ India's abstention on UN votes for a resolution deploring Russia's invasion of Ukraine; Prime Minister Modi's refusal to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the Quad summit; the Rupee-Ruble trade arrangement that bypasses SWIFT and expansion of imports of Russian energy (oil, gas, coal) 

○ Although it may be difficult for India-Russia relations to be as close as they were in the past, India and Russia will continue to maintain their relations for practical needs, such as weapons and energy supply and management of Sino-Russian relations-for a considerable period of time. 

■ India's diplomatic choices and prospects

○ India's orientation towards the strategic autonomy tends to manifest itself more clearly as conflicts between great powers and bloc politics intensify. 

○ India's recent foreign policy stance, in which strategic autonomy is ever more pronounced, however, is rather in solidarity with the West. 

○ India, in recognition of the supremacy of the United States in terms of security, economy and technology, is expected to develop a diplomatic strategy that takes advantage of the U.S. foreign policy, including Quad, to some extent.

○ The West needs to reevaluate India's role in both preventing such disconnections and conflicts between the two powers and rapid development of Sino-Russian relations. 

■ Policy Implications for Korea

○ It is necessary to recognize India as a country with influence after the U.S., China, and Japan, and pay adequate amount of attention to India within Korea's diplomacy. 

○ While understanding and learning lessons from Indian diplomacy, it is necessary to build a true strategic partnership based on recognition of common interests between the two countries.

    ※ 2023, the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea and India, may be the time to upgrade Special Strategic Partnership of 2015 and announce a roadmap that matches the new relationship.

○ In order for South Korea to truly become a global pivotal state, it must first deepen its relations with key regional partners through effective regional strategies. In this context, the partnership with India will serve as a valuable stepping stone to Korea's diplomatic ambition.

○ By deepening its partnership with India, which emphasizes strategic autonomy and practical benefits, Korea can have more leverage in implementing Korea's own Indo-Pacific strategy prepared by the Yoon Seok-yeol administration.

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