Since the end of the Cold War, and especially after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, global security concerns have centered on the risk that non-state actors and so-called rogue states might proliferate, divert, or misuse weapons of mass destruction (WMD). To address these concerns while preserving their competitive edge in industry and technology, the United States and other advanced technology powers have been expanding and strengthening the international non-proliferation regime through various means. Multilateral export control, a core pillar of this regime, has traditionally centered on strategic goods, but since the 2000s its scope, target items, and instruments have grown more complex and stringent. As globalization and digitalization have made the transfer of knowledge and technology easier, and as emerging technologies increasingly become central to national security, technology control has taken on growing importance within the non-proliferation regime. Within the multilateral export control framework, emerging technology control falls under the Wassenaar Arrangement, which governs dual-use items and technologies; however, the existing Wassenaar (WA) regime has struggled to keep pace with the rapidly evolving nature of emerging technologies. Controlling emerging technologies is critical not only because of their dual-use potential for immediate military application, but also because, once transferred, their diffusion can occur covertly and on a wide scale.

Strategic competition between the United States and China stands as a defining feature of the 21st century, increasingly manifesting as a contest for technological supremacy within the broader dimension of economic security. Compounded by the war in Ukraine, U.S.-China technology competition, and rising American unilateralism, these dynamics have triggered a fundamental clash between the global trade regime and the export control regime. This paper examines how strategic competition and the Russia-Ukraine war are reshaping export controls and the current multilateral export control landscape. To this end, it first traces the origins and evolution of multilateral export controls since the end of World War II. Building on this foundation, the paper analyzes the key issues and challenges facing the Wassenaar Arrangement, the core regime underpinning today's multilateral export control system, and assesses the prospects for a new, U.S.-led export control framework, along with the responses and relevant policies of China, the EU, and Japan.