Sejong Policy Studies

Why Did the North Korean Regime Not Collapse?

Date 2013-02-10 View 1,557 Writer Miong-sei Kang

This paper (in Korean), written in February 2013, was uploaded for archival purposes.

 

Despite the vast amount of research on the North Korean regime, there lacks a convincing analysis on why the regime has not collapsed. The paper is written to contribute to justifying the reason for the abovementioned statement based on the recent studies on dictatorial regimes. Regime change constitute the key area in the field of political economy and comparative politics. The analysis on change in North Korea could be make systemic progress theoretically if it is analyzed together with the research outcomes in the field of comparative politics. The narrative on the regime collapse in North Korea has been vigorously argued among scholars after the collapse of the Iron Curtain but the prediction has been categorically inaccurate. Instead, the North Korean regime has boasted its presence, proclaiming the slogan of ‘strong and prosperous power’ and developing nuclear weapons. Viewing this situation, it is rather appropriate to shift the discourse from the prediction of North Korean regime collapse to why does it not collapse. This study aims to explicate why the regime stays intact from a theoretical perspective. To this end, the study takes the following progression. First, it begins with the definition of dictatorship. It is inappropriate to define North Korea as a dictatorial state superficially or ideologically and an inappropriate perception cannot induce appropriate policies. The author defines dictatorship in accordance with the definition of democracy in the minimal sense. Second, it utilizes two recent outstanding research outcomes regarding the cause of the continuation of dictatorship. Understanding pre-existing studies is to seek the most suitable theoretical framework in analyzing the long-term rule of dictatorship. Third, it explains the long-term continuation of the North Korean regime in pursuant to the aforementioned theoretical framework. Fourth, the study analyzes North Korea’s attempts to search for a financial breakthrough by exporting minerals to China. North Korea’s exports to and dependency on China is its choice for survival to escape from the dilemma instigated by the internal contradiction of the North Korean regime. The large-scale mineral exports to China, initiated by South Korea’s sanctions against North Korea, contributed to North Korea’s intensifying dependency on China.