Emerging strategic risks in the Asia-Pacific and the impact on the nuclear nonproliferation regime

Editor: Lee Sang Hyun

Volume: 16 pages ​

South Korea’s perspectives on strategic risks:

‣ • Systemic fragmentation of the international situation is expected to continue, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is pushing the world into a second Cold War.

‣ • At the regional level, China is becoming a risk factor, and Japan’s recent change in its national security policy has intensified the arms race in Northeast Asia.

‣ • The strategic situation on the Korean Peninsula remains unclear due to the suspension of nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea, the suspension of inter-Korean dialogue, and North Korea’s voluntary isolation since the COVID-pandemic. 

South Korea’s main national security concerns: 

‣ • South Korea’s immediate security threat is North Korea. Since the beginning of 2022, North Korea has fired about 70 missiles, ranging from short-range missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles.

‣ • North Korea is focusing on developing various types of missiles and has set up a new building on the site of the partially dismantled Punggye-ri nuclear test site, indicating efforts to restore at least some part of the site for a seventh nuclear test.

Policy changes and continuities between administrations: 

‣ • While the Moon administration focused on building an inter-Korean peace process, the new Yoon administration is expected to follow in the footsteps of previous conservative administrations and put North Korea’s complete denuclearisation as the basis for improving inter-Korean relations while working toward establishing a “comprehensive strategic alliance” with the United States.

South Korea’s attitude to nuclear weapons:

‣ • Most South Koreans think North Korea’s nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to South Korea, and South Koreans consistently support the development of an independent South Korean nuclear weapons capability, over the deployment of US nuclear weapons.

‣ • Neither of these options are likely to happen in practice. The most realistic option for South Korea is to strengthen US extended deterrence while strengthening South Korea’s own deterrence capability against North Korea.

Impact on the nuclear non-proliferation regime:

‣ • The Yoon Suk-yeol government is not seriously considering developing its own nuclear weapons, or the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons by US forces in Korea. South Korea will continue to abide by nuclear non-proliferation norms. However, the Yoon government’s nuclear non-proliferation stance has shown small but significant signs of change in recent months.

‣ • If North Korea’s nuclear threat becomes more visible and South Korea takes its own path to nuclear development, it will signal the start of a nuclear domino effect in Asia. ​