Monograph

Evaluation of South Korea’s Post-Cold War North Korea Policy: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations for Improvement

Date 2022-02-07 View 899

 

The end of the Cold War has dramatically reshaped inter-Korean relations and the Korean Peninsula’s security landscape over the past decades. This paper aims to analyze and evaluate successive South Korean governments’ North Korea policy in the post-Cold War era. The evaluation criteria primarily adopted here are each administration’s attainment of policy goals including fostering and sustaining peace and stability, promoting co-prosperity, and laying the groundwork for peaceful reunification, as well as determination and commitments shown along the way. The Roh Tae-woo administration and the progressive South Korean administrations tended to show tangible achievements in improving inter-Korean relations. In contrast, under conservative South Korean administrations except for the Roh Tae-woo administratiom, political ideology frequently strained inter-Korean relations with multiple eruptions of conflicts.

 

The characteristics of inter-Korean relations during the post-Cold War era include North Korea's nuclear development, economic and military asymmetry between South Korea and North Korea, deepening of political and social heterogeneity on the Korean Peninsula, the increased importance of economic logic, and paradoxical increase of U.S. influence on the Korean Peninsula due to the rise of the Korean Peninsula issue as an international matter despite the improvement of South Korea’s national strength. In particular, Washington’s conciliatory policy has become a critical element in promoting peace on the Peninsula and inter-Korean cooperation, whereas a discord among Seoul, Washington, and Pyongyang or a tough stance taken by one side was enough to spark a conflict or confrontation between the two Koreas.

 

With these considerations in mind, this paper proposes policy recommendations for South Korea in re-calibrating its North Korea policy to improve inter-Korean relations in the coming years. First and foremost, it is critical to establish a firm national security posture buttressed by robust military capabilities to effectively address future developments on the Peninsula caused by North Korea’s provocations. It is also essential for South Korea to formulate and implement its North Korea policy with the goal of preventing mutually destructive confrontation and aggression from North Korea. It should also accelerate the wartime OPCON transfer to directly engage with North Korea and negotiate nuclear and military issues.

 

Secondly, the peace process on the Korean Peninsula should be resumed and North Korea must be denuclearized through nuclear negotiations. It is necessary to announce the declaration of the end of the Korean War and provide conditional sanctions relief as part of an effort to resume talks with North Korea; play the role of fair mediator and facilitator; present a reasonable roadmap and negotiating strategy focused on providing economic assistance and preserving the Kim regime’s stability in exchange for Pyongyang’s denuclearization measures; and be prepared for North Korea’s future attempts to alter the framework of nuclear negotiations.

 

Last but not least, there are some valuable lessons South Korea could learn from German unification. South Korea must lay the foundation for reunification through inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation and diplomacy that sets an example. Seoul should double down on efforts to provide economic assistance to Pyongyang and promote inter-Korean economic cooperation. Going forward, South Korea’s policy toward the North should focus on reconciliation and cooperation regardless of the incumbent administration’s ideological orientation. The South Korean government should seek practical ways to improve the human rights situation in North Korea and gradually increase North Korea’s dependence on South Korea with a view to building an “inter-Korean economic community” that will carve out a glorious future. A finely-crafted mid to long term policy guided by shared prosperity and peaceful co-existence as well as diplomacy that sets an example for other countries could help South Korea win the backing of many nations and open up new avenues for the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula.