Sejong Institute regularly conducted a series of studies under the theme of Foreign Policy Tasks for the incoming government to help the Korean government establish its foreign policy, which is replaced every five years. This book was designed to help the Yoon administration establish foreign policy, launched in May 2022. The Yoon administration will face many difficulties in establishing foreign policies due to recent geopolitical and geoeconomic conflicts between major powers.
The Korean Peninsula Peace Process, passionately conducted by the previous government is now almost collapsed, and Korea-Japan relations and Korea-China relations are not in a positive situation. In particular, denuclearization talks between North Korea and the U.S. have stalled since the 2018 Hanoi Summit and stalled dialogue channels between the two Koreas. The relationship between South Korea and China continues after the THAAD crisis but in uncomfortable relations. Against this backdrop, this book was designed to evaluate and analyze the Moon Administration's North Korean policy, U.S. policy, China policy, Japanese policy, New Southern policy, and multilateral foreign policy to derive the Yoon Administration's policy tasks and present solutions.
In Chapter 1, Dr. Daewoo Lee analyzes the international situation at the time of the establishment of the Yoon Administration by dividing the security and economic environment. The international security environment, including the Korean Peninsula, is very unstable due to North Korea's extreme provocations, intensifying competition of hegemony between the U.S. and China, and war in Ukraine. Not only the security environment but also the international economic environment is also unstable. The spread of Covid-19 seized the international logistics, production, and distribution structure, and weaponization of resources before and after the war in Ukraine, the U.S.'s supply chain reconstruction (IPEF, Fab4) is accelerating to intercept China's economic growth environment. In such an environment, the international community is naturally divided into a U.S.-led Democratic coalition and an authoritarian coalition led by China(Russia). Although the new Cold War structure is raising concerns, Dr. Lee argues it is not easy to establish a new Cold War system.
In Chapter 2, Dr. Seung-chang Chung argues the Yoon Administration's North Korean policy should be bipartisan and focus on securing deterrence against North Korea's nuclear development. Nevertheless, Dr. Chung emphasizes that military tensions on the Korean Peninsula will increase if the strengthening of the Korea-U.S. alliance, is emphasized by the Yoon administration's hard-line policy toward North Korea. Dr. Chung analyzed the top 10 obstacles to North Korea's denuclearization drive and concluded such obstacles cannot be removed only by North Korea's denuclearization process. However, Dr. Chung argues that the South Korean government should consider creating a strategic command, strengthening joint deterrence between South Korea and the U.S., and even South Korea's independent nuclear armament to secure deterrence against North Korea.
In Chapter 3, Dr. Jung-yeop Woo argues that the analysis of the Biden Administration's North Korean policy, South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation, and competition against China must be conducted to normalize U.S.-South Korean relations. Dr. Woo believes "Initiatives on North Korea Policy" has been transferred to the South Korean government by the analysis of the 2022 Korea-U.S. Summit, but notes its unclearness of the U.S.'s North Korea policy and necessity of Korea-U.S. corporation upon strategic review. Hence, the need to deliver strategic messages to domestic and international resistance to emphasize Korea-U.S. economic security policy (construction of a stable supply chain, high-tech cooperation) is strengthening.
In Chapter 4, Dr. Jae-Heung Jung analyzes the Yoon Administration's policy tasks toward China. Dr. Chung argues 30 years of diplomatic relation between South Korea and China has been expanded and deepened, but also conflict and confrontation over national interests also have been created. In particular, the unstable international East Asia situation due to the U.S.-China conflict is likely to negatively affect the Yoon Administration's China policy and limit cooperation between Korea and China. Therefore, the "Reestablishment of Korea-China relations based on mutual respect" emphasized by the Yoon Administration is not an easy task, but is required to first achieve regularization and institutionalization of high-level strategic dialogue between the two countries to manage major issues (North Korea's nuclear issue, THAAD, US-led IPEF, and technology alliance) and hold strategic flexibility toward China's key interests.
Chapter 5, analysis from Dr. Chang-soo Jin shows there has been a favorable atmosphere between Korea and Japan since the inauguration of the Yoon Administration. Dr. Jin argues that strategic diplomacy has vanished since the past administrations in Korea and Japan where both countries used an exclusive nationalistic sentiment in domestic politics, forcing their will in favor of the government. Fortunately, however, Dr. Jin emphasizes that President Yoon considers Korea-Japan cooperation along with Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation. Hence, he argues there are various fields between Korea and Japan to cooperate in the era of strategic confrontation between the U.S. and China and increasing threats from North Korea. Dr. Jin proposes a comprehensive solution to promote cooperation between Korea and Japan.
Chapter 6, Dr. Yoon Jung Choi analyzes what is necessary to establish Korea's "Indo-Pacific Strategy" promised by the Yoon Administration. Dr. Choi analyzes the achievements and tasks of the "New Southern Policy" from the previous administration, examines the strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific region based on strategic analysis by major regional countries, and suggests the direction of establishing Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy. Dr. Choi argues that Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy should hold a clear position and value for strategy establishment, emphasize an open attitude to cooperate with various countries rather than focus on certain countries, and include specific agendas, strategies, and action plans to prevent abstract declarations.
In Chapter 7, Professor Shin-hwa Lee of Korea University (currently the North Korean Ambassador for Human Rights) made a proposal on the Yoon administration's multilateral diplomacy strategy. Professor Lee emphasizes the importance of minimized multilateralism (QUAD, AUKUS, Five Eyes, IPEF), which the United States currently is implementing, and analyzes the achievements and limitations of our multilateral diplomacy of previous governments. Professor Lee notes that human resource, material, legal, and institutional arrangement were insufficient due to limitations or failure factors rather than performance. To overcome cush limitations and establish a successful multilateral diplomatic strategy, Professor Lee emphasizes that the basis of the new government's national philosophy and identity must be integrated with grand diplomatic strategy and Korea-U.S. alliance as a basis of strategy, early integration with multiple multilateral organizations to concrete Korea's influence into a strategic position.
As mentioned, North Korea's provocations are at their peak, and geopolitical and geographical competition between the U.S. and China or major powers is causing the international security and economic environment into a very unstable status. In such a situation, Yoon Administration saw it was impossible to maintain "strategic ambiguity" in foreign affairs after constituted, claimed to strengthen the Korea-U.S. alliance and also joined the U.S.-led supply chain reorganization. Nevertheless, the Yoon Administration's foreign policy should be established in the direction to minimize geopolitical and geoeconomic losses.