The Costs of U.S.-Led Counterproliferation Sanctions: Exaggerated Ex Ante Fears vs. Sanction-Imposition Dilemmas / Gyu Sang Shim･Jee Yong Kim

Public opinion polls indicate that more than 70 percent of South Koreans support nuclear armament, yet recent survey experiments suggest that this support declines sharply when respondents are exposed to expert opinion regarding the potential costs of economic sanctions. This study contends that such experimental designs incorporate systematic biases by overstating anticipated fears and, consequently, critically reexamines the assumption that sanctions are an automatic consequence of nuclear development. Utilizing a dataset of 36 countries that currently or previously possessed uranium enrichment or reprocessing capabilities, the analysis employs linear regression (MLE) and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to identify the determinants of sanction imposition. The results demonstrate that sanctions are not automatically triggered by nuclear advancement but are instead contingent on political and strategic contexts, including a country’s level of democracy, alignment with the United States, and geopolitical salience. These findings challenge the prevailing view that nuclear pursuit inevitably results in severe and enduring sanctions. With respect to South Korea, the analysis suggests that its democratic legitimacy, friendly relationship with the United States, and regional strategic value increase the likelihood that Washington would accommodate, rather than penalize, its nuclear armament.

Keywords: Counterproliferation Sanctions, Exaggerated Ex Ante Fears,Sanction-Imposition Dilemmas, Nuclear Development Four-Stage Data

A potential direction for revising the ROK-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement to strengthen our national energy security during the global energy transition / Joohyun Moon

This study begins with the premise that ensuring the sustainability of nuclear energy is essential for strengthening the Republic of Korea's (ROK) energy security. However, fundamental solutions to the challenges of unstable uranium supply and spent nuclear fuel accumulation are fundamentally constrained by the current ROK-U.S. Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. This study seeks to propose a cooperation model that can secure the predictability of nuclear fuel cycle activities while addressing U.S. nonproliferation concerns. To this end, the study analyzes the EURATOM case, where institutional trust was established through a multilateral system, proposing 'predictable cooperation based on trust' as an alternative framework. Specifically, the study considers our three potential nuclear fuel cycle alternatives: 1) hosting a multilateral enrichment facility, 2) obtaining programmatic prior consent for reprocessing in a third country, and 3) introducing a multilateral dry reprocessing facility. Finally, it suggests specific amendments to the ROK-U.S. Nuclear Cooperation Agreement to implement these alternatives.

Keywords: Energy Security, ROK-U.S. Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, Multilateral Enrichment Facility, Reprocessing in a Third Country, Multilateral Dry Nuclear Spent Fuel Reprocessing Facility.

South Korea’s Nuclear Armament Debate and the Dilemma of Asymmetric Alliances: The Inequivalence of Entrapment and Abandonment / Hyokeun Jee

This study analyzes the recent rise of nuclear armament discourse in South Korea through the theoretical lens of the "inequivalence of entrapment and abandonment." In asymmetric alliances, the benefits and burdens shared between the stronger (the United States) and the weaker (South Korea) states are not symmetrical. While abandonment poses an existential threat to the weaker ally, entrapment constitutes a manageable political burden for the stronger power. This paper argues that the inequivalence between these two alliance risks is a key driver behind the growing domestic support for nuclear armament in South Korea.

Despite over 70 years of alliance history marked by U.S. extended deterrence commitments and institutional linkages, South Korea continues to perceive a heightened risk of abandonment. This perception has been reinforced by the North’s advancing nuclear capabilities, deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, and alliance skepticism under the Trump administration. Rather than relying on the traditional assumption in asymmetric alliance theory that entrapment and abandonment risks are equivalent, this study adopts the inequivalence hypothesis to reinterpret the emergence of nuclear armament discourse in South Korea. Theoretically, the study challenges the symmetry assumption in existing alliance theories. From a policy perspective, it suggests that enhancing the credibility of U.S. entrapment (commitment) and reducing the perceived risk of abandonment are critical alternatives to the push for indigenous nuclear weapons.

Keywords: Entrapment–Abandonment Dilemma, Inequivalence, Asymmetric Alliance, Extended Deterrence, Nuclear Armament Debate, ROK–U.S. Alliance

Force Structure and Employment Strategiesfor a Nuclear-Armed ROK / Inseok Yoo

The purpose of this study is to propose force-building and operational directions premised on the assumption of South Korea’s nuclear armament, thereby deriving strategic preparatory tasks and policy implications for deterrence and response to North Korea and other potential threats. The most critical security challenge facing South Korea is the continued advancement of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and the possibility of its use in contingency scenarios. While Seoul has relied on U.S. extended deterrence and sought to reinforce its conventional capabilities under an integrated deterrence strategy, concerns regarding the credibility of extended deterrence and the structural vulnerability arising from the nuclear imbalance between the two Koreas have not been resolved. As a result, debates advocating nuclear armament as a viable alternative have been steadily expanding. Accordingly, this study proposes the concept and operational framework of a “Korean-style force composition” encompassing nuclear capabilities, non-nuclear strategic weapons, advanced non-conventional assets, and conventional forces, based on an outlook of the strategic environment over the next decade. This approach seeks to optimize force development and integrated operations not only in response to the North Korean nuclear threat but also against a wide spectrum of potential challenges. Ultimately, the study aims to broaden the horizon of discussions concerning strategic countermeasures required in the event of nuclear armament, while providing an analytical foundation and reference point for the formulation of more sophisticated security strategy.

Keywords: Nuclear Armament, Integrated Deterrence, ROK–U.S. Alliance, Korean Style Force Mix, Defense Strategy

The Second Trump Administration’sTaiwan Strait Policy: Shifting Deterrence Structures andSouth Korea’s Response Strategy / Youcheer Kim

This article examines the potential Taiwan Strait policy of the Second Trump Administration and aims to derive an optimal strategy for the Republic of Korea (ROK) government. The Trump administration has pursued several unconventional foreign policy maneuvers; regarding the Taiwan Strait, it appears likely to maintain the existing deterrence structure against China while utilizing it as leverage for negotiations based on transactionalism. Some domestic analysts argue that the United States is likely to demand ROK contributions during hypothetical scenarios such as a Chinese blockade or full-scale invasion of Taiwan, creating an “entanglement and abandonment” dilemma due to the asymmetrical alliance structure. In contrast, this article argues that while the existing deterrence structure in the Taiwan Strait is indeed weakening, it will likely persist for a considerable duration due to innovations in military technology favoring the defender and Taiwan’s enhanced self-defense capabilities. Furthermore, considering the fragmented discourse on Taiwan defense within the United States and the Second Trump Administration’s transactional approach toward China, we contend there is little rationale for the ROK to assume the risks of excessive entanglement. The article concludes that, given this strategic environment, the ROK government should pursue a “Capacity-Enhancing Hedging Strategy” focused on risk management, maintaining the deterrence structure, and making substantive contributions to the alliance.

Keywords: Cross-Strait Relations, Trump Administration, US-China Competition, Hedging Strategy

The Political Logic of China’s Military Reforms under Xi Jinping: The Reorganization of the PLA Strategic Support Force and Authoritarian Power Consolidation Theory / Jangkwon Moon

This study analyzes the 2024 dissolution of Strategic Support Force (SSF) of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the establishment of the Aerospace Force (ASF), Cyberspace Force (CSF), and Information Support Force (ISF) within the framework of the authoritarian power consolidation theory. While previous research has primarily focused on jointness, efficiency, and technological innovation, this study emphasizes the political context—particularly political security and power centralization. The analysis reveals that the dismantling of the SSF was driven not by military efficiency but by a strategic pursuit of political security. Xi Jinping employed counterbalancing and centralization to suppress potential power blocs, combined co-optation and purges to restructure elite loyalty networks, and prioritized political control even at the expense of joint operational effectiveness. By comparing these developments with democratic reform cases in the United States, this study highlights the distinctive characteristics of authoritarian military governance, extends the explanatory power of the Authoritarian Power Consolidation Theory, and provides significant policy implications for security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.

Keywords: Xi Jinping, Strategic Support Force, Authoritarian Power Consolidation Theory, Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force, Information Support Force

Russia’s Perspective on the Second Trump Administration: Recognition of Multipolarity and the Framing of Conservative Values and Christian Nationalism / Taerim Lee

The second Trump administration’s recognition of multipolarity and its emphasis on conservative values and Christian nationalism exhibit an unusually high degree of overlap with the ideological trajectory pursued by the Putin government. This study examines the policy and perceptual convergences and divergences between the two governments and analyzes their strategic implications for U.S.–Russia relations. The Trump administration’s “America First” orientation prioritizes strengthening U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere—a shift Russia views as conducive to stabilizing its own sphere of influence and advancing its long-standing pursuit of a multipolar order. The expansion of conservative and Christian-nationalist discourse within the MAGA movement has also contributed to increasingly favorable perceptions of Russia among segments of the American conservative base. However, it remains uncertain whether these value-based intersections will translate into meaningful structural change in bilateral relations. Questions also persist regarding the Trump administration’s ability to consistently implement MAGA-oriented foreign policy within the constraints of the U.S. decision-making system. While recognizing these limitations, Russia appears to regard the rise of American conservative movements as a potential strategic opportunity. Given that deteriorating U.S.–Russia relations have historically constrained the Republic of Korea’s strategic space, potential improvements in the bilateral relationship could reshape the strategic environment on the Korean Peninsula and create more favorable conditions for the Republic of Korea to pursue a pragmatic, interest-based foreign policy.

Keywords: Multipolarity, Christian Nationalism, Conservative Values, MAGA Movement, U.S.–Russia Relations 

Decision Elements for Russian Nuclear Strategy: Balance between Russian and NATO Conventional Forces and Changes of Nuclear Strategy(2010-2021) / Jinwoo Roh, Youngjun Kim

This study deals with Changes of Russian Nuclear Strategy. Past studies have focused political and diplomatic elements in shaping Russian nuclear strategy such as political leadership, foreign policy direction, international relations and domestic politics. This paper focuses military element, balance of Russian conventional forces to its counter part, NATO and how balance of conventional military power impacts on Russian nuclear strategy. This study analyzes Russian conventional military power to NATO over the ten years before start of Russian Ukraine War and how it influence in shaping Russian nuclear strategy. Theoretical framework of Vipin Narang and Drew and Snow will be used in this study, including declaratory, employment strategy and capability as well as net assesment of Andrew Marshall for conventional military power. This study academically to under researched relations between conventional military power and nuclear strategy and provides policy implications.

Keywords: Russia, NATO, Nuclear Strategy, Conventional Forces, Strategic Stability

Evaluation of Russia-Ukraine War andits implications for future defense policy: Advent of Drone Warfare or Continuation of Fire-Oriented War? / Young-June Park

The war between Russia and Ukraine has been lasted over three years since its outbreak in February 2022. Despite Russia’s overwhelming military strength and international standing, Ukraine withstands well militarily and diplomatically during the war.

Observing the war, researchers and policy makers discussed about the essence of modern war and the prospects of future wars. Some pointed out that Russo-Ukraine war can be characterized as drone warfare and drone will be a game changer in the future war. Others claims that traditional way of warfare such as trenches and artillery still prevails in this war and military commanders’ tactics and strategy continuously are important in the future war.

Mindful of these debates, this article reconstructs the process of Russo-Ukraine war into four phases and tries to draw some military lessons for future defense policies. Lesson are as follows. First, construction of reliable cyber and missile defense system is critical to protect so-called strategic centers in the initial phase of war against adversaries. Second, combination of high-tech military technology such as drones and anti-drones with traditional military tools like ammunition and artillery will be constantly important for a future warfare. Third, robust industrial base such as defense industry and electricity and major supply chain with the neighboring countries will be essential to continue long war which will be lasted for plural years. Fourth, reliable political leadership which can mobilize people’s support and international assistance will be indispensible for comparatively weak power to sustain dragged war.

These lessons can be an wake-up call for South Korea’s defense policy to prepare for future defense policy.

Keywords: Russo-Ukraine War, Drone Warfare, Fire-Oriented War, Future War, Defense Policy

An Analysis of the Development of the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ Integrated Operational System: Focusing on the Development of the Defense Force Concept and the Shift in Command Structure / Hyejin Jang

This study analyzes the establishment of Japan’s Joint Operations Command within the broader context of the development of its integrated operational system, focusing on two main axes: defense capability concepts and command structure. The analysis covers the period from the 2000s, when the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) began exploring a shift toward integrated operations, to 2022, when the creation of the Joint Operations Command was officially announced. By comparing each period, the study examines the major changes and characteristics in Japan’s defense concepts and command structure. The findings reveal that in the 2000s, as Japan maintained its traditional “basic defense force” concept, reforms in command structure and the promotion of integrated operations remained limited. In contrast, since the 2010s, integration across the land, maritime, air, and emerging domains has become central to Japan’s defense concept, thereby accelerating both the institutional and functional advancement of its integrated operational system. Given that Japan’s transition toward integrated operations and the security environment driving it have direct and indirect implications for South Korea’s security and defense posture, the study highlights the need for developing corresponding domestic and international policies, including the advancement of a Korea-style integrated operational system.

Keywords: J-JOC, JSO, Joint Operation, Defense Force Concept, The Shift in Command Structure