National Strategy Vol. 30 No. 1 (Spring)​

Analysis of the Possibility of China's Invasion of Taiwan and US Withdrawal from the Western Pacific: Focusing on Audience Costs and Naval Power Resilience / Jeeyong Kim

What are the chances of a US-China war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait? When will China's first invasion of Taiwan occur? Who will win the war? Will China's second invasion of Taiwan succeed after America's Pyrrhic victory? Will the Taiwan Strait war lead to an emergency on the Korean Peninsula? What should be Korea's response tasks? This study traces clues to the six questions above based on various theoretical grounds and data. In particular, the timing of China's first invasion of Taiwan is specified from the perspective of audience costs, and the reason why a second invasion of Taiwan is possible is explained in terms of naval power resilience. And, under the premise that a war in the Taiwan Strait will cause an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, three situations are assumed and countermeasures that Korea should take are presented. 

Keywords: Taiwan Strait, Us-China War, Audience Cost, Naval Power Resilience

Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty Regime and the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: Implications for International Law and Political Reality / Chang Wee Lee

In December 1991, North and South Korea agreed to Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, North Korea ignored the agreement and devoted all of its capabilities to nuclear development internally. North Korea defied international sanctions and pressure and eventually became a nuclear power. North Korea insisted on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in exchange for the withdrawal of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons from the peninsula and the withdrawal of U.S. troops. South Africa is the only case of a successful nuclear state deciding to denuclearize on its own. Libya abandoned its nuclear program after failing to develop nuclear weapons. Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus turned over all of their nuclear weapons to Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. South Africa and Libya joined the Pelindaba Treaty to complete the denuclearization of Africa, and Kazakhstan concluded the Semipalatinsk Treaty to agree to the denuclearization of Central Asia. The Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula could also theoretically evolve into a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty. However, this is unlikely to happen if North Korea fails to denuclearize. Now, negotiated denuclearization of North Korea is unlikely. In this context, this study examines the legal and political issues related to the establishment of the NWFZ treaty regime and the five NWFZ treaties, with implications for the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Keywords: Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone, Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization, Treaty of Tlatelolco, Treaty of Rarotonga, Bangkok Treaty, Treaty of Pelindaba, Semipalatinsk Treaty

Alliance Design for Peace among Members: Empirical Analysis / Won-June Hwang

The United States sought to prevent conflicts between the ROK and Japan while bolstering their relationship through the trilateral ROK-US-Japan summit, which took place at Camp David in 2023. This study examines how alliances can be structured to prevent and manage disputes among member states. Hypotheses are proposed using variables drawn from liberal institutionalism—namely, the degree of institutionalization, formality, and bilaterality—as well as the inclusion of non-aggression pacts and peaceful resolution of conflicts that directly address dispute prevention and management. This study employs Poisson regression to analyze the frequency of intra-alliance Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs). Findings indicate that formality and bilaterality exert the most significant influence, while peaceful dispute resolution also demonstrate notable impact.

Keywords: Intra-alliance Disputes, Alliance Design, Tethering Effect, Formality, Bilaterality

A Study on Lessons-learned from War in Ukraine and the Development Direction of RoK-US-Japan Cybersecurity Cooperation / Hywong-Wook Boo

Although the war in Ukraine is the first 'major' conflict in which conventional and 'large-scale' cyber warfare were combined, the cyber warfare aspect of the war in Ukraine was not significantly highlighted. Because of this, critical views have been drawn that cyber threats have been exaggerated. This study starts with an evaluation of the views, and it also discusses that the war in Ukraine brought strategic repercussions, which led to western vs. anti-western confrontation, and that this confrontation structure was projected as solid external support in cyberspace. This study also delves into the importance of solidarity among allies to solidify cybersecurity. The strategic environment is evolving day by day, and this has been proven in part in the war in Ukraine. Because solidarity between blocs was being formed, cyber vigilantes were recruited, and private companies rushed to help Ukraine. Reflecting this strategic situation, South Korea, the U.S., and Japan are at the center of the strategy to expand the network for cybersecurity cooperation. This study evaluates that a new momentum for security cooperation among Korea, the U.S., and Japan has been created under the Yoon government. Security cooperation among three nations has been closely promoted at the summit level, but policy-level cooperation has been insufficient. It is diagnosed that there is a similar situation in the cyber field. The Camp David Declaration confirmed the trust among the leaders of the three countries once again. The author argued that it should be able to create a new engine for cybersecurity cooperation among Korea, the U.S., and Japan, as the will for cybersecurity cooperation is strong.

Keywords: War in Ukraine, Cyber Warfare, RoK-US-Japan Cybersecurity Cooperation

Exploring European Public Opinion of the Russo-Ukrainian War and its Determinants: Empirical Study using Micro-Level Data / Yoo-Duk Kang

This empirical study presented herein investigates European public opinion regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war, with a focus on security, values, and economic ramifications as explanatory variables. The analysis underscores that European

citizens' perspectives on the Russo-Ukrainian war are substantially influenced by security considerations, value orientations, and economic factors. Notably, while security concerns and value orientations tend to endorse a hard-line stance towards Russia, economic considerations appear to exert a contrary influence. Furthermore, individual political and economic attributes are identified as pivotal in shaping attitudes towards the Russo-Ukrainian war, indicating that matters pertaining to this war may escalate into significant domestic political concerns. Higher levels of education and income correspond to a greater propensity to advocate for a tough response to Russia, with positions along the individual left-right spectrum also demonstrating some sway. Moreover, an individual's perception of security threats and value-oriented disposition significantly impact attitudes towards countermeasures against Russia. Those who have encountered economic challenges tend to exhibit diminished support for the European Union's economic sanctions targeting Russia. Trust in domestic political institutions and the EU system emerges as a positive determinant of endorsement for hard-line countermeasures against Russia. In summary, while factors such as security and value orientation bolster support for stringent countermeasures against Russia, economic concerns appear to

pull in the opposite direction.

Keywords: Russo-Ukrainian War, European Union, Public Opinion, Determinants, Empirical Analysis, Eurobarometer

South Koreans’ Hidden Unification Preferences: Evidence from a Choice-based Conjoint Analysis / Peter Ward ･ Steven Denney ･ Christopher Green

This article aims to measure South Korean popular preferences for various unification scenarios with North Korea by utilizing the conjoint analysis method, a method previously not used in unification perception research. Existing research examining preferences uses multiple-choice questions in observational designs covering the need for unification, the period in which it should happen, ideological views of unification, and the political system of a unified Korea. However, the relative preference for different potential unification scenarios cannot be measured using direct questions and multivariate regression analysis alone. Hence, this article utilizes a multidimensional conjoint experiment to examine how different components of a hypothetical unification scenario, including the post-unification political system, how the North Korean leadership is dealt with, the jobs that Korean Workers’ Party members are permitted to hold, the involvement of South Korean firms in the post-unification North Korean economy, the dispatch of forces to the North inter alia.

Keywords: Unification, Perception, Conjoint Analysis, Public Opinion, North Korea

Exploring the Concept of Peace in the Cyber Domain and Alternative Approaches / Suyeon Lee ･ Junghyun Yoon

Today, cyberspace is constantly expanding, driving the development of technology and society. Its quantitative expansion and qualitative transformation are also accelerating. These evolving changes in cyberspace suggest that stability and peace are as necessary for human prosperity as in the real world. However, in comparison to the attention and response efforts directed at cybersecurity issues, there has been little in-depth discussion of the ultimate goal of cyberspace stability, or cyber peace. In particular, the dynamic expansiveness and transcendence of cyberspace, which distinguishes it from the physical world, calls for careful consideration. This study attempts to provide a theoretical analysis that considers the characteristics and operating mechanisms of the cyber domain, and through this, suggests practical approaches for cyber peace. These include a multistakeholder approach, cyber peace as a process, and homeostasis-based cyber resilience. As the concept of cybersecurity has taken a long time to establish itself as a systematic object of study in international politics, cyber peace will also need more real-world examples to elaborate the concept and establish a meaningful discussion framework.

Keywords: Cyber Peace, Cybersecurity, Homeostasis, Resilience

Changes and Causes of the Succession System During the Xi Jinping Era / Chiyoung Ahn

The Xi Jinping era has seen the abolition of term limit for top leader, adjustments in practices related to leadership transition, including retirement and tenure guarantees for leaders, and adjustments in the selection and training of successors. These changes and adjustments were driven by the concentration of power to address crises that emerged as a result of the paradox of reform success, but also by the need to centralize decision-making to respond to U.S.-China conflicts and changes in international affairs. They are also related to the relative weakness of China's institutions and norms and the fact that the succession system is based on custom and is not institutionalized. While such changes cannot rule out the possibility of a new succession system, the concentration of power in the hands of Xi Jinping has the potential to create uncertainty and new crises, as the formation of a new succession system depends on his “will” rather than institutions and norms.

Keywords: Xi Jinping era, Succession System, The Selection and Training of Successors, Concentration of Power, The Crisis of Reform Success