National Strategy

National Strategy Vol. 30 No. 2 (Summer)

Date 2024-05-02 View 455

Types and Characteristics of North Korea's ‘Conduct of War System’ During Kim Jong-un Era / Jeongki Kim

 

This study examined the types and characteristics of North Korea(NK)'s ‘Conduct of War System’(COWS) during the Kim Jong-un era. The self-reliance type(SRT) of the Kim Il-sung(K1) and the military-first type(MFT) of the Kim Jong-il(K2) era changed to the nuclear-first Type(NFT) system in the Kim Jong-un(K3) era. The NFT, which prioritizes nuclear power, was reorganized by adjusting the core organization, personnel composition, war strategy, and command system based on the backdrop of the party leadership system established by K1 and K2 and the legacy of nuclear development and converting it to a system that seeks victory centered on nuclear power. Three characteristics of the phenomenon revealed externally by the NFT system were analyzed. First, the war method was changed to an aggressive posture using nuclear weapons. Second, the phenomenon of expanding the delegation of authority, which focuses on the use of the party's nuclear control at all times, was remarkable. Of course, this is seen as a way to ensure flexibility in operation while strengthening the authority of K3, who has already dominated the party, the government, and the military. Third, it frequently holds military events centered on arms for nuclear force, demonstrating the improvement of the constitution of the North Korean military, which is externally not lagging behind in the arms race against the United States and South Korea. In conclusion, South Korea is facing the threat of a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula, which may be carried out by NK's NFT COWS. Therefore, South Korea must take back wartime operational control(OPCON) over her own conventional forces as soon as possible, convert the ROK-U.S. military alliance into a nuclear strategic alliance, and come up with practical countermeasures, including the building of the ROK-U.S. Combined Nuclear Strategic Command.

 

Keywords: Kim Jong-un, North Korea, Conduct of War System, Nuclear-first Type

 

 

The Mechanisms of Strategic Nuclear Deterrence: From the Perspectives of Universality and Specificity of Nuclear Deterrence / Bonyun Gu・Yue Ma

 

As North Korea approaches becoming a nuclear power state, it is necessary to reconsider the existing deterrence strategy and explore a new direction. This paper attempts to derive a deterrence logic optimized for the Korean Peninsula. For analysis, this paper discussed the concept, mechanism, and paradigm shift of nuclear deterrence at the theoretical level from the perspective of universality and particularity. At the practical level, based on the perception and characteristics of North Korea which is a deterrent, we devised a tailored deterrence logic based on the three elements: goals, methods, and means. As a result of this paper, given that the top priority for North Korea is the political survival of its supreme leader, deterrence by punishment against Pyongyang is most appropriate. As a means, it is essential to establish a strategic link between South Korea’s independent deterrence policy, KMPR and extended deterrence.

 

Keywords: North Korea, Nuclear Strategy, Extended Deterrence, Deterrence by Punishment, Tailored Deterrence

 

 

Birds of a Feather Flock Together: Regime Type, Political Affinity, and North Korean Response to Human Rights Shaming in the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) / Haeun Jang・Seong Hun Yoo

 

How does North Korea engage with the international human rights community? To one’s surprise, North Korea actively engages with the international human  rights community, notably participating in the Universal Periodic Review (UPR). Across the multiple UPR cycles, including the latest in 2021, North Korea accepted around 337, or, around 50% of recommendations issued by other states. This contrasts with its long-standing adversarial attitude towards international human rights norms. This study focuses on the UPR's peer-review mechanism, contending that North Korea's acceptance of recommendations depends on the characteristics of countries raising human rights concerns. The argument suggests a higher likelihood of acceptance when recommendations come from politically similar nations in terms of regime type, or those with established political cooperation ties. Using data from the UPR-Info database, the study empirically tests this hypothesis by examining whether the reviewing state's democracy level and voting affinity in the UN General Assembly influence North Korea's acceptance of human rights recommendations. Our findings support the claim that North Korea is more likely to accept recommendations from authoritarian and politically proximate states, aligning with their voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. This implies that North Korea's active participation in the UPR may not necessarily translate into tangible improvements in its human rights practices.

 

Keywords: UN, Universal Periodic Review, North Korean Human Rights, Naming and Shaming, Regime Type Similarity, UNGA Voting Similarity

 

 

 

A Study on the Current Status and Tasks of Unification Education in the Public Sector / Hyun-suk Oum

 

The purpose of this study is to examine and present implications for unification education in the public sector, which has been compulsory since 2019. According to an examination, unification education at the pan-governmental level, such as central administrative agencies, local governments, and education offices, formed an orderly system from planning to results. However, the qualitative limitations of unification education according to the educational status and implementation method of some institutions shown in the implementation rate are a task to be solved. Based on the results of this study, various mechanisms to increase participation and effectiveness should be actively reviewed.

 

Keywords: Public Sector, Unification Education, Educational Methods, Statutory Compulsory Education, Collective Education

 

 

 

Challenges of Social Media Public Diplomacy in Japan: Focusing on the Fukushima Reconstruction Movement / Jiehyun Roh

 

After the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011, the Japanese government and local governments tried reviving the Fukushima reconstruction movement to allay domestic fears and concerns about agricultural and seafood products from Fukushima and revitalize the local economy. The region has expanded its public relations efforts to the digital age, with foreign envoys and celebrities posting tasting videos on social networking services (SNS) to convince consumers of the safety of local products. However, the Japanese government's announcement that it will release contaminated water into the sea seven times a year for 28 years, from 2023 to 2051, has exacerbated public opinion in South Korea and China and raised questions about safety. The Japanese government disclosed the information to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and actively engaged in public diplomacy on social media, claiming to have received scientific verification from international organizations. This study analyzed the data mining of X (formerly Twitter) related to 'Fukushima,' 'Fukushima reconstruction movement,' and 'Fukushima contaminated water discharge' posted from January to December 2023. While Japan has been

promoting through non-governmental figures such as "Beauty of Fukushima" and "Let the Science Talk," various actors such as individual influencers, foreign media, and foreign governments (international broadcasters) have provided content that refutes the Japanese government's logic. This study suggests that in the digital information age, governments' media public diplomacy to gain consent from foreign publics is competing with various actors and that unilateral advocacy alone may have limitations.

 

Keywords: Twitter Diplomacy, Media Public Diplomacy, Digital Diplomacy, Fukushima Contaminated Water, Fukushima Reconstruction 

 

Why is North Korea failing to reform its economy? North Korea's economic reform and bureaucracy / Peter Ward 

 

In this review, I will discuss the book's key content, its theoretical contributions, and how future research might address its limitations. The book primarily aims to explain why North Korea has been unable to overcome its economic difficulties through institutional reforms and better economic management, from the Kim Il-sung era to the Kim Jong-un era. It seeks to uncover the political and economic reasons behind this failure. One of the main factors behind North Korea’s economic stagnation and crises is the inadequacy of its economic reforms. Reforms often fail due to conflicts among political groups with differing interests, especially where such clashes also involve goals or power of the supreme leader. Policies that could threaten the survival of the state, particularly in times of crisis, are highly sensitive, and economic reforms are no exception. The book Why North Korea Fails in Economic Reform: North Korean Economic Reform and Bureaucratic Politics provides valuable theoretical and empirical analysis of these issues. This review will first outline the book’s main structure and theories, and then examine its limitations and suggest directions for future research.