The US-China Technology Rivalry and its Impact on Korea's Semiconductor Industry / Heungkyu Kim, Byungchul Lee
This study examines the impact of the ongoing US-China semiconductor rivalry on South Korea and examines potential response strategies for Korean semiconductor companies. The current US-China power struggle is centered around
technological competition, with semiconductors at the core of this contest. Semiconductors are not only a key element of the Fourth Industrial Revolution but also play a critical role in economic security.
The United States has implemented various measures to curb China's rise in the semiconductor sector, while simultaneously focusing on building a domestic semiconductor ecosystem to secure supply chain stability. In response, China is accelerating its efforts to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency. This competition between the US and China has significant implications for South Korea in multiple ways.
US-led actions against China have negatively impacted the expansion of semiconductor manufacturing facilities in China and hindered the ability to scale production. These measures have also created challenges for semiconductor sales in the Chinese market. The construction of semiconductor facilities in the US faces significant management difficulties due to infrastructure limitations and high construction and operating costs, undermining operational efficiency. As South Korean semiconductor companies align with US policies toward China, the risk of retaliation from China increases. In this challenging international environment, it is critical for both the South Korean government and companies to collaborate in finding strategies that will maintain their competitive edge in the semiconductor sector. The most essential strategy for companies is to maintain a technological leadership gap. While South Korea must also work to maintain strong diplomatic ties with China, it is necessary for South Korean companies to strengthen corporate diplomacy with both the US and China. This includes actively engaging in lobbying efforts with both governments to mitigate risks and safeguard their business interests.
Keywords: Technological Hegemony Competition, Containment Policies, Semiconductor Development, Competition Scenarios, Impact on South Korea
An Evolving Economic Security Dilemma Between the ROK and the U.S. / Youcheer Kim
This paper seeks to elucidate the implications of the United States' policy measures aimed at thwarting China's rise in advanced technology capabilities on its relations with allied countries, using the concept of an ‘economic security dilemma.’ The significance of this analysis lies in the broad interpretation of the concept of ‘economic security’ that has been proliferating in recent legislation and policies of various countries under US leadership. This, coupled with associated industrial policies, has given rise to both cooperative and competitive dynamics among allies. For instance, certain provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA) and CHIPS and Science Act, while aiming to secure technological advantages for US firms and stimulate domestic investment and job creation, may also undermine the interests of allies like South Korea. Such provisions can be seen as a source of conflict. This situation, combined with the asymmetric nature of the US-South Korea alliance, creates a dilemma for both countries. This paper conceptualizes this dilemma as an ‘economic security dilemma.’ This dilemma, characterized by the trade-off between policy autonomy and participation in economic security measures, represents a dynamic process where South Korea is structurally pressured to participate without much choice due to constraints imposed by the asymmetric alliance structure. Through this analysis, we argue that, under the asymmetric alliance structure, the equilibrium point of interests between the US and South Korea lies in South Korea's participation in the US-led effort to block China's access to advanced technology, in exchange for side payments such as exemptions from certain provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act. This argument aligns with the course of US-South Korea negotiations thus far.
Keywords: The U.S.-China Competition, Economic Securitization Dilemma, IRA, Chips & Science Act
Suasion, Coercion, and Accommodation by the United States Against Allied Proliferation: Will the U.S. Coerce South Korea to Prevent its Nuclearization? / Robert Kelly ･ Daehan Lee
South Korea’s strategic nuclearization logic is plausible. The paper first presents two security-based arguments for South Korean nuclearization: 1) The credibility of the U.S. alliance commitment to South Korea is increasingly challenged by North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons atop intercontinental ballistic missiles. 2) The American Republican party under Donald Trump regularly threatens alliance abandonment of US partners. The paper next presents four US counterarguments to South Korean nuclearization, clustering around nonproliferation concerns: 1) South Korea’s withdrawal from the Nonproliferation Treaty might fatally damage the Treaty. 2) South Korean nuclearization would create yet more possibilities of accidents and mishaps. 3) South Korean nuclearization might catalyze a regional nuclear cascade. 4) South Korean nuclearization would reduce North Korea’s willingness to denuclearize. The paper argues that these counterarguments are flawed, leaving America only the option of sanctions coercion to reduce South Korean nuclear interest. However, coercing a long-time ally would undermine the ROK-US alliance and the US credibility. The paper thus concludes that the United States should respect and accommodate an ally’s sovereign decision on nuclearization. It further argues that accommodation defuses charges of nuclear duplicity incurred by intra-alliance threats, which serves America’s interest in its contention with China.
Keywords: Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, United States, South Korea, Alliance Coercion
Nuclear-NNSW Nexus: Implications for North Korea’s Nuclear Strategy and the ROK-US Alliance / Inseok Yoo
One of the prominent features of the recent new nuclear landscape is the increasing application of emerging technologies, such as cyber and artificial intelligence (AI), in the nuclear field, leading to the growing trend of integrating nuclear and non-nuclear strategic weapons. However, research on this phenomenon has been insufficient. This topic is particularly relevant to North Korea‘s nuclear strategy, but related studies or policy reviews are almost nonexistent. This paper aims to broaden the scope of research on the North Korean nuclear issue by explaining the integration of nuclear and non-nuclear strategic weapons from the perspective of “nuclear superiority competition.” To this end, it examines the conceptual research on non-nuclear strategic weapons and reviews the existing discussions on the integration of nuclear weapons with cyber, AI, and other technologies, analyzing this phenomenon from a comprehensive perspective and drawing policy implications. This research is significant as a conceptual study expanding the scope of existing cyber and AI-centered research, providing policy implications for North Korea’s nuclear strategy and the ROK-US Conventional-Nuclear Integration(CNI) strategy.
Keywords: Nuclear-NNSW Nexus, Nuclear Superiority Competition, Artificial Intelligence, North Korea, ROK-US Alliance
A Study on National Strategy and Radical Militarism in the Kim Jong-un Era / Sokchun Chang
In order to understand the relationship between the national strategy and radical militarism in the Kim Jong-un era, this paper examines the content and direction of military policies and actual military actions within the national strategic lines declared by major party conferences, and characterizes North Korea's intentions and objectives from two dimensions: political-military and political-economic. The national strategy and sub-strategic routes of the Kim Jong-un era have been changing according to internal and external factors, from the original line of the ‘Sun-Gun Revolution’ to the ‘economic-nuclear parallel development policy(2013.3)’, the ‘All-out Concentration Policy for Economic Building (2018.4)’, and the ‘head-on breakthrough battle(2019.12)’. This national strategy, coupled with a policy of military build-up, has influenced the North Korean military's weapons systems and military industry, and has pushed the country towards radical militarism. As a result, based on its perception of itself as a ‘strategic state’ with nuclear weapons, North Korea has focused on upgrading its nuclear capabilities through the test-firing of strategic weapons and delivery vehicles to complete its nuclear arsenal. The development of the military industry to acquire nuclear weapons has also led to the production of its own strategic weapons systems and illicit arms sales, which ultimately contribute to the construction of economic power as part of the national strategy to stabilize the regime. In the end, the change in national strategy from a conventional power center to a nuclear power has led to radical militarism, which in turn has led to the achievement of political-military and political-economic goals of building an economic power and
becoming a strategic state with nuclear weapons. Ultimately, North Korea will use its military superiority to take the lead in the Korean Peninsula and the international community to achieve its desired political goals.
Keywords: Kim Jong-un Era, North Korea's National Strategy, Militarism, Defense Industry
Kim Jong-un North Korea’s Opportunistic Military Strategy / Taehyun Kim
This paper aims to analyze the nature of North Korea's new security strategy, represented by the concept of ‘territorial consolidation,’ and to understand, explain, and prospect the new military strategy in the future. The paper interprets North Korea's argument of ‘hostile two states’ and ‘territorial consolidation’-line, presented at the December 2023 plenary meeting, as a product of ‘strategic opportunism’ that seeks to change the status quo by riding on the wave of the international new Cold War structure. Under this grand strategy, North Korea's military strategy is evolving into a ‘defense-strike complex’ exploiting nuclear weapons and is expected to ultimately progress into a strategic offensive based on a ‘nuclear-conventional combination.’ This study focuses on comprehensively understanding North Korea's new security strategy from the perspectives of inter-Korean relations, foreign policy, and military strategy, aiming to identify the realistic aspect of North Korea's military capabilities and ambitions.
Keywords: Territorial Consolidation, Hostile Two States, Military Strategy, Defense-Strike Combination, Nuclear-Conventional Combination
The Dynamics of Linkages between Space Security and Data Security in the New Space Era / Heon Joo Jung
The vast amount of data generated, collected, and transmitted through satellites located hundreds or even tens of thousands of kilometers away from the Earth’s surface creates diverse values by being either utilized as it is or analyzed, processed, and combined with other data. This, in turn, has a significant impact on national security, economic development, and understanding and responding to environmental issues. Above all, space data is becoming increasingly important from a military and security perspective. This is so because space-based data plays a crucial role in various military operations, such as detecting signs of weapons of mass destruction launches, providing real-time situational awareness, operating precision-guided weapons, and conducting effect analysis on the battlefield. Moreover, space data is used to evaluate the military preparedness and capabilities of (potential) adversaries, thereby contributing to securing military superiority. Therefore, how space data is collected, analyzed, utilized, and protected has emerged as a critical issue in the realm of security. This study examines the relationship between space security and data security through two interactive ways: space data for security and security for space data. In particular, this study analyzes these relationships in the context of the increasing space activities of private actors and the corresponding rapid growth and qualitative improvement in space data in the New Space era. Furthermore, this study examines South Korea’s current status in terms of the space security-data security linkage and derives policy implications from this analysis.
Keywords: Space Security, Data Security, Space Data, New Space
Between Hope and Skepticism: Analyzing Generation Z's Skepticism on Unification / Kwang-young Ko ･ Taekbin Kim
This study examines whether “skepticism on unification” can be homogenized as a single view and whether there is a conscious difference between younger and older generations on the need for unification. The main findings indicate that factors such as negative perception on North Korea and socioeconomic concerns after unification influence the older generations' perceptions on the necessity and possibility of unification. However, there was a discrepancy in perception over the
necessity and possibility of unification among the younger generation(those born after 1990). Results indicate that the younger generation is skeptical towards unification because they believe it is unrealistic. In contrary to general expectation that they would be skeptical about unification due to the socioeconomic costs associated with unification, negative perceptions on North Korea was the main reason for their skepticism.
Keywords: Skepticism on Unification, Generation Z, Necessity of Unification, Possibility of Unification, Inter-Korean Relations