⑩ The Global South Reshaping the Landscape of World Politics and Economics

In 2025, the world will enter a period of full scale tectonic change. With the return of President Trump, who has formalized strategic competition with China, the United States has embarked on an intense struggle centered on trade war dynamics. Meanwhile, China and Russia, once America’s principal rivals during the Cold War, are consolidating influence in their surrounding regions to project economic and military power. Alongside this renewed major power rivalry, a third grouping known as the Global South is expanding its presence in international political discourse.

The term Global South was first used during the Cold War to refer to nonaligned or developing countries that did not belong to either the Western bloc or the Soviet camp. Its origins can be traced to the Non Aligned Movement established after the 1955 Bandung Conference. Most of these countries experienced Western colonial rule and gained independence after the Second World War. In 1964, they organized the Group of 77 within the framework of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development to advocate for a fair and equitable international order. Today, 134 member states identify themselves as part of the Global South.

The renewed attention to the Global South was catalyzed by the 2022 Ukraine crisis. At the United Nations, during votes condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its attempted annexation of occupied territories, 35 countries including China, India, and South Africa abstained, and five voted against the resolutions. These states also declined to participate in Western economic sanctions against Russia.

The Global South has already emerged as a pivotal actor in international affairs. American political scientist John Ikenberry has described the world as divided into three spheres: a Global West led by the United States and Europe, a Global East led by China and Russia, and a non Western Global South.

Above all, the economic weight and significance of the Global South continue to expand. It accounts for 70 percent of the world’s population, with more than 68 percent in the working age group of 15 to 64. The share of global GDP held by the Group of Seven has declined from 70 percent in the 1980s to about 40 percent today, a gap increasingly filled by the Global South. According to International Monetary Fund statistics, the Global South already represents 40 percent of the global economy. By 2030, China, India, and Indonesia are projected to rank among the world’s four largest economies.

As energy, minerals, and food become instruments of geopolitical leverage, resource rich Global South countries are exerting growing influence over global industry and supply chains. China, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Brazil are leading producers of critical minerals such as rare earth elements, graphite, manganese, cobalt, nickel, and lithium. China, India, and several Latin American states also rank among top producers of copper and aluminum. For Western countries seeking to strengthen supply chain security, India, ASEAN, and Latin America have become important partners as new production bases and consumer markets.

The Global South is also amplifying its collective voice through platforms such as BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the G20, the United Nations, and the World Trade Organization to enhance its economic and diplomatic influence.

China stands out as a leading force in mobilizing the Global South. Over the past decade, China’s presence in these regions has been formidable. It is the largest trading partner for more than 120 countries. Between 2013 and 2023, China invested approximately 2.49 trillion dollars in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. Since establishing its first overseas military facility in Djibouti in 2017, China has expanded its military footprint in Africa and South Asia.

Since 2021, China has also proposed the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative as alternatives to Western models across political, economic, social, and cultural domains. It has actively utilized institutions such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where it plays a central role, to advance these initiatives. China positions BRICS as a Global South forum capable of counterbalancing the G7, has expanded its membership to nine countries, and has begun developing alternative currency and payment systems such as BRICS Pay to reduce reliance on the United States dollar.

President Xi Jinping has further announced that, starting December 1 this year, China will grant zero tariff treatment on all tariff lines to all least developed countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Beijing. This move contrasts sharply with President Trump’s declaration of a universal tariff of 10 to 20 percent on global imports and is likely to portray China as a defender of free trade.

However, the identity of the Global South is distinct from China. India and Brazil offer illustrative examples of leadership within the Global South. Since 2023, India has hosted three Voice of Global South summits, inviting representatives from 125 countries. India defines itself not as anti Western but as non Western. Rather than following or opposing the West, it seeks an independent path. By leveraging major power competition to maximize national interest, India’s updated non alignment strategy has resonated widely across the Global South.

Brazil and other Latin American countries also adhere to a doctrine of active non alignment amid intensifying United States–China rivalry. This approach emphasizes pragmatic decision making based on national interest in each specific international issue. In responding to the emerging new Cold War, these countries prioritize economic benefits over ideological values or security alignment, marking a clear departure from the dynamics of the original Cold War.

Given the diversity of interests within the Global South, it is difficult to regard it as a unified actor. Rather than forming an anti Western bloc in the manner of China or Russia, the Global South is better understood as seeking common positions on overlapping interests such as reform of international institutions including the United Nations and multilateral development banks, debt restructuring, climate change response, and infrastructure development. In this respect, it differs not only from contemporary anti Western states but also from the historical Non Aligned Movement.

As the importance of the Global South rises, major Western countries have intensified engagement. The European Union launched the Global Gateway initiative in 2021 as a counter to the Belt and Road Initiative, announcing plans to mobilize up to 300 billion euros by 2027, with half allocated to Africa. G7 leaders have discussed various support measures including the mobilization of 600 billion dollars in capital for Global South countries. The United States and Europe are also exploring expanded financial assistance including debt restructuring for developing countries. At the national level, Japan has allocated approximately 8 trillion won in supplementary budget funds for Global South engagement and announced multiple support initiatives, including assistance to India.

The Global South encompasses production hubs, consumer markets, and resource bases of immense economic value. Within a few years, its influence across politics, economics, science and technology, and the environment will be overwhelming. It would not be an exaggeration to say that it holds the key to humanity’s future survival and prosperity. Efforts to understand the Global South and to build a world order grounded in coexistence and shared growth must begin now.

South Korea is a model country that successfully transitioned from an aid recipient to a donor nation. Its scientific innovation, cultural creativity, and experience in economic development constitute powerful soft power assets capable of engaging the Global South. By understanding the systemic concerns and strategic directions of these countries and aligning them with Korea’s strengths, Seoul can forge durable and forward looking partnerships with the Global South.​

Yoon-Jung Choi et al.｜KBOOKS｜October 2024